Bitcoin’s Low Volatility Signals Potential 2025 Bull Run: ARK Invest Analysis

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In the dynamic world of cryptocurrency， Bitcoin’s recent price movements have sparked intense speculation about its future trajectory. ARK Invest’s latest monthly report provides a nuanced perspective on the digital asset’s current market behavior， offering insights that suggest potential significant growth in 2025.

The December report delves deep into Bitcoin’s volatility metrics， revealing a fascinating narrative about the cryptocurrency’s current market phase. Despite experiencing sharp price fluctuations in December， which saw the price drop below the psychologically important $100，000 mark， ARK Invest argues that these movements are not extraordinary when viewed through a historical lens.

Key to ARK’s analysis is the comparison between Bitcoin’s monthly and yearly realized volatility. The research indicates that while December showed increased volatility， it remained relatively moderate in a broader historical context. This nuanced interpretation suggests that Bitcoin has not yet reached its market mania phase， implying substantial room for future expansion.

One of the most compelling findings is the holder behavior data. An impressive 62% of Bitcoin’s total supply remains untouched for over a year， even as the asset has recorded remarkable gains exceeding 100% in 2024. This long-term holder strategy indicates strong market confidence and potential for future appreciation.

The report’s bullish outlook is further supported by additional indicators such as mining difficulty and short-term holder cost basis. These technical metrics provide a comprehensive view of Bitcoin’s underlying market strength， suggesting that the cryptocurrency is positioning itself for significant growth in the coming year.

Additionally， the political landscape is playing a crucial role in Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. The anticipated Trump presidency has already generated considerable excitement within the crypto community. Trump’s campaign promises to make the United States a global crypto hub， coupled with his selection of pro-crypto advisors like Paul Atkins and David Sacks， have injected optimism into the market.

Pantera Capital echoes this sentiment， predicting that the new administration could further legitimize Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies， potentially driving prices to unprecedented heights. Upcoming executive orders expected to be signed by Trump are anticipated to provide greater clarity and support for the crypto ecosystem.

In conclusion， ARK Invest’s analysis paints a promising picture for Bitcoin in 2025. The combination of stable underlying metrics， strong holder behavior， and a potentially crypto-friendly political environment suggests that the digital asset is primed for significant growth. Investors and market watchers would be wise to pay close attention to these developments as they unfold.